TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD

OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

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Highway Safety Manual Plans Shared with Several European Nations

In October 2004, Ron Pfefer attended the SIIV 2nd International Congress held in Florence, Italy. This event was aimed at fostering a review of available technologies and simulation tools used to improve road safety. Experiences and practical implementations of the research findings on these themes were discussed allowing knowledge sharing within a large international forum. Ron presented background information and details regarding the planned HSM to a group of about 35 engineers. Significant interest was demonstrated in the HSM effort. Ron's presentation, "Road Safety Analysis Methods and Procedures" is available for review.

January 11, 2004 TRB Workshop "After the Crashes are Counted"

On Sunday, January 11, 2004 the TRB Workshop "After the Crashes are Counted" was presented to discuss a variety of methodologies used for statistical modeling. This Workshop was sponsored by the TRB Task Force on the Development of the Highway Safety Manual (ANB25T) and the Committee on Statistical Methodology and Computer Software in Transportation Research.

Presentation Made:

After the Crashes are Counted Introduction by Forrest Council

Cause, Effect and Modeling by Dr. Ezra Hauer

Limitations to Modeling and Analysis Techniques by Simon Washington

Bayes Methods by Dominique Lord

TRB 2006

Sunday, January 22, 2006

8:30 AM to 5:00 PM: Cause, Effect, and Intervention: Current and Future Directions in Road Safety Research

Workshop 126

Forrest M. Council, University of North Carolina, presiding

Sponsored by:
Safety Data, Analysis and Evaluation Committee (ANB20)
Statistical Methodology and Statistical Computer Software in Transportation Research Committee (ABJ80)
Development of the Highway Safety Manual Task Force (ANB25T)

Note: The purpose of this workshop is to be a forum for discussing current road safety research approaches, assessing their strengths and weaknesses and suggesting promising future directions. The workshop should be of interest to researchers, those who manage and fund road safety research programs, and those who make use of road safety research results.
Much of what we think we know about the safety effect of design and operational decisions or about the effect of interventions is based not on ‘designed experiments’ but on ‘observational studies’; studies that make use of what data can be assembled after the fact. The morning session will be devoted to the question “Can One Come To Cause-Effect Conclusions in Observational Road Safety Studies?”

Reliable knowledge about the safety effect of design and operational decisions or about the effect of interventions accumulates only slowly. Perhaps progress could be accelerated if novel directions were pursued. The afternoon session will be devoted to the question “What Research Approaches Hold Promise?”

Tentative Agenda
Moderator: Forrest M. Council

Morning Session:
1. E. Hauer: Cause and Effect in Observational Cross-Section Studies.
2. R. Noland: Theory, Estimation and Interpretation of Crash Models: Issues with Cross-Sectional and Time-Series Analysis.
3. J. Hedlund: From Cause to Countermeasure
4. General Discussion

Afternoon Session:
1. J. Bonneson: Theory, Explanation and Prediction in Road Safety?
2. F. Thomas: Causal Graphical Models and their Application in Observational Road Safety Studies
3. G. Davis: Applying Pearl's Structural Causal Modeling in Road Safety Research.
4. General Discussion

Wednesday, January 25, 2006

10:15 AM to 12:00 PM: "Identification of Data Needs to Use the HSM"

Session 653

John Freeman, Kittelson & Associates Inc, presiding

Sponsored by:
Development of the Highway Safety Manual Task Force (ANB25T)

David L. Harkey, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
Strategies for Improving Highway Safety Data (P06-0125)

Douglas W. Harwood, Midwest Research Institute
Communicating Data Needs to HSM Users (P06-0126)

Geni B. Bahar, iTRANS Consulting, Canada
What to Expect in Fundamentals and Knowledge-Based Chapters of the HSM (P06-0127)

Dominique Lord, Texas A&M University System
Data Needs for Estimating Safety Performance of Multilane Rural Highways (P06-0128)

2:30 PM to 6:00 PM: Project workshops on NCHRP projects related to the HSM development

7:30 PM to 9:30 PM : Subcommittee meetings

Thursday, January 26, 2006

8:00 AM to 3:30 PM: Development of the Highway Safety Manual Task Force: Full Task Force (ANB25T)