On Sunday, January 11, 2004 the TRB Workshop "After the Crashes are Counted" was presented to discuss a variety of methodologies used for statistical modeling. This Workshop was sponsored by the TRB Task Force on the Development of the Highway Safety Manual (ANB25T) and the Committee on Statistical Methodology and Computer Software in Transportation Research.

View the materials from this workshop:

After the Crashes are Counted Introduction by Forrest Council
(Posted 1-16-04)

Cause, Effect and Modeling by Dr. Ezra Hauer
(Posted 1-16-04)

Limitations to Modeling and Analysis Techniques by Simon Washington
(Posted 1-16-04)

Bayes Methods by Dominique Lord
(Posted 1-16-04)

Content Subcommittee
This Subcommittee is preparing a draft of Chapter 1, the introductory chapter for the HSM, as well as a "super-annotated" outline for Chapter 2. This material will be transmitted to the contractor on NCHRP Project 17-27. It is also surveying a small group of potential users of the HSM, with respect to the applicability of the safety performance models that are presented in the prototype chapter, developed for 2-lane rural roads. These models are also implemented in the FHWA Interactive Highway Safety Design Model (IHSDM).

Implementation Subcommittee
Funded research is in place for Parts I, II, and III of the HSM. These projects have either started or are about to start. More funding is needed for additional sections of the manual. Research problem statements were forwarded to the AASHTO to be considered for the NCHRP program. These problems statements are for:

• Parts IV and V of the HSM
• Production of the first edition
• Development of training materials

The Implementation Subcommittee will continue to work with research problem statements and monitor the work plan to make sure the development of the HSM is on schedule and that the Task Force is meeting its goals. In addition, the subcommittee will coordinate with software developers to encourage development of HSM software and to make sure developers have the best technical information. Finally, the subcommittee will begin discussions on the potential need for a data needs document to complement the HSM, to apprise potential users of the nature of the data that will be needed to use the Manual.

Planning Subcommittee
The 2004 Mid-Year Meeting will be held in Portland, OR, June 28 through 30. The chair of the Subcommittee has produced an agenda in coordination with Chairs of all Subcommittees. The Planning Subcommittee is considering:

• Potential topics for sessions at the 2005 TRB Annual Meeting
• Dates for the 2005 mid-year meeting of the Task Force (to coincide with the 3rd International Symposium on Highway Geometric Design in Chicago)

Policy Subcommittee
The Policy subcommittee created two working groups that will lead the subcommittee efforts on several tasks:

• Review working group - this group will develop a procedure for a review and organize the review of documents produced by research contractors and other Task Force subcommittees. Reviewers from outside the subcommittee will be identified as well (such as AASHTO or US Access Board personnel).
• Program working group - this group will plan future programs to support the interests and activities of the subcommittee.

Several policy discussions have been held since the mid-year meeting, with the following outcomes:
• Units of measure: both metric and US customary unit systems should be used; the subcommittee recommends using the same format for the HSM as appears in other publications.
• A policy on the use of the terms "Accident," "incident," and "crash" will need to be established. The subcommittee does not yet have a clear preference at this point.
• Cost information - this information should be provided in the HSM. The subcommittee is not recommending how this information should be provided.

Research Subcommittee
The Research subcommittee organized a workshop held at the TRB Annual Meeting entitled, "After the Crashes Are Counted." Positive feedback was received, and additional workshops might be desirable in the future. Presentations from the workshop are posted below on this page.

The subcommittee developed an initial procedure for having research evaluated:

• Non-NCHRP contracts (prior to first edition of HSM) - research committee will review research for relevance to an NCHRP contract and if the work seems appropriate, the committee will forward it to the NCHRP contractor.
• Non-NCHRP contract (after the first edition has been developed) - a website submittal and review procedure will be developed, and recommendations will be forward to the Task Force by the subcommittee for consideration of inclusion.
• NCHRP contract work - the subcommittee will discuss with Chuck Niessner opportunities for the subcommittee and Scientific Review Group to review work at interim stages.

• The subcommittee will prepare language on the limitations and misuse of accident (crash) rates and will submit this to the Content subcommittee at mid-year for review.
• The subcommittee is conducting a scientific assessment of the prototype chapter. It has been forwarded to part of the Scientific Review Group for their assessment. In addition, members of the subcommittee are conducting sensitivity analyses of the models which are presented in the chapter.

The subcommittee is leading a survey of HSM potential users with respect to the friendliness and usefulness of the content of prototype chapter 8. The results of this survey will be presented at the 2004 mid-year meeting.

Secretariat
The secretariat is handling all Task Force correspondence and minutes, while also maintaining a data base of Task Force members and friends, as well as maintaining a data base of motions adopted by the Task Force. In addition, one of the members of the secretariat is preparing an initial discussion on a framework for the potential applications of the HSM.